Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami has finalized its party candidate list across the country while simultaneously campaigning for various demands, including elections under a Proportional Representation (PR) system. Party leaders, however, claim this is only a preliminary list subject to change. Nevertheless, all preparations are moving forward.
Party leaders believe Jamaat could even form the government in the next election, claiming an increase in public support.
However, a detailed analysis is underway regarding the party’s actual achievements in past competitive elections, the number of seats where they hold a significant vote bank individually, and why the public would choose them over a major party like the BNP. Considering the statistics from the last four national elections in the country’s 300 constituencies, the party can only mount a reasonable challenge in approximately 43 seats.
AHM Hamidur Rahman Azad, Assistant Secretary General of the party, told Bangla Tribune, “We are contesting the election to form the government. We believe the people will choose the ‘Dharipalia’ (Scales, the party’s electoral symbol) this time because those who were in power in the past did nothing for the country’s interest.” He claimed that the party’s top leaders would also perform well this time, though he did not specify how many seats Jamaat expects to win.
Statistics from the competitive elections after 1990 suggest that if the party participates in the election individually, even the victories of the party’s Ameer and Secretary General are uncertain. The same is true for other top leaders.
Despite being marginalized for 16 years, Jamaat has been fully engaged in party work since August 5 of last year. It staged a large-scale demonstration in the capital on July 19 and its affiliated organizations are also active. The frequent meetings between the party Ameer and diplomats are seen by many as politically significant.
On September 19, Assistant Secretary General Muhammad Shahjahan said at a rally in Chattogram, “Jamaat will win enough seats to form the government in the next election, and the BNP will become the opposition.” He suggested that the results of the Dhaka University Central Students’ Union (DUCSU) and Jahangirnagar University Central Students’ Union (JACSU) elections have sent a similar message from the youth. Party leaders are giving similar statements at various programs.
What are the Achievements in Competitive Elections?
In the four relatively acceptable parliamentary elections held since the fall of Ershad in 1990, Jamaat has not achieved significant success.
- The 1991 Fifth National Election saw Jamaat win 18 seats individually with 12.13 percent of the total votes. The winning BNP secured 140 seats with 30.81 percent of the vote, and the Awami League won 88 seats with 30.08 percent. Although Jamaat came fourth in seats, its vote share placed it third.
- In the Seventh National Election on June 12, 1996, Jamaat won only three seats individually and received 8.61 percent of the total votes, placing it fourth. The winning Awami League secured 146 seats with 33.44 percent, while the BNP won 116 seats with 33.61 percent.
- In the 2001 Eighth National Election on October 1, Jamaat contested 31 seats as part of the four-party alliance with the BNP and won 17 seats with 4.28 percent of the vote. The winning BNP secured 193 seats with 40.97 percent. Jamaat was third in terms of seats but fourth in vote share.
- In the Ninth National Election on December 29, 2008, Jamaat won only two seats with 4.7 percent of the vote. The Awami League won 230 seats with 48.4 percent as part of the Grand Alliance. The BNP, the main opposition, won 30 seats with 32.5 percent. Jamaat was fifth in terms of seats and fourth in vote share.
Ameer and Top Leaders’ Constituency Status
The current Ameer of Jamaat, Dr. Shafiqur Rahman, contested the 2001 election as a four-party alliance candidate from a part of his birthplace, Moulvibazar-2, where he finished third with only 12,415 votes.
In the same election, contesting from Sylhet-1 on the Scales symbol, Dr. Shafiqur Rahman finished fourth with 18,029 votes. In 1991, he contested the seat and came third with 17,517 votes. Although it is not confirmed if he will contest from his home area in Moulvibazar or Sylhet this time, it is certain he will contest from Dhaka-15. He contested this seat in 2018 as the Secretary General but did not receive a significant vote share. Despite the lack of a strong history of votes here, party activists are campaigning vigorously for him.
Jamaat Secretary General Professor Mia Golam Parwar won from Khulna-5 in 2001 as a four-party alliance candidate but lost to the Awami League’s Narayan Chandra Chanda in 2008.
Naib-e-Ameer Dr. Syed Abdullah Mohammad Taher won from Cumilla-12 (now Cumilla-11) in 2001, defeating former Railway Minister Mujibul Haque, but lost in 2008. This is the only seat in Cumilla where Jamaat has a competitive position.
Another Naib-e-Ameer, Professor Mujibur Rahman, is expected to contest from Rajshahi-1, a seat he won in 1986. However, in the last individual election in 1996, he came third.
ATM Azharul Islam, a central executive council member acquitted of war crimes charges, will contest from Rangpur-2. He came third in 2008 as a four-party alliance candidate.
Assistant Secretary General Rafiqul Islam Khan will contest from Sirajganj-4, where he came second in 2008.
Assistant Secretary General AHM Hamidur Rahman Azad, who won from Cox’s Bazar-2 in 2008 as an alliance candidate, will contest from the same seat.
Assistant Secretary General Advocate Moazzem Hossain Helal will contest from Barishal-5, where the party’s past vote statistics are weak.
Nurul Islam Bulbul, Ameer of Jamaat’s Dhaka Metropolitan South, will contest from Chapainawabganj-3. The party has a relatively better position in this constituency.
Dr. Shafiqul Islam Masud, Secretary of Dhaka Metropolitan South, will contest from Patuakhali’s Bauphal, where the party’s vote share is historically very small.
Selim Uddin, Ameer of Dhaka Metropolitan North, will contest from Sylhet-6, where the party has a record of finishing second and third.
Dr. Muhammad Rezaul Karim, Secretary of Dhaka Metropolitan North, will contest from Lakshmipur-3, where the party has no history of significant votes.
Division-Wise Significant Vote Banks
Jamaat has a strong electoral base, or “vote bank,” in certain seats across several divisions, enabling them to be somewhat competitive.
- Dhaka Division: No history of wins. Only in Faridpur-3 in 2008 did the late former Secretary General Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mojaheed receive a significant, though third-place, vote.
- Chattogram Division: Past wins in two seats in Cox’s Bazar, and one each in Chattogram and Cumilla. Chattogram-15 is considered a strong base for the party. Cumilla-11 is another crucial seat where Jamaat is the main rival of the Awami League. No significant success in Chandpur, Brahmanbaria, Rangamati, Bandarban, and Khagrachhari.
- Sylhet Division: Past win in one seat, Sylhet-5, and a reasonably competitive position in Sylhet-6. The party has minimal vote share in Moulvibazar, Sunamganj, and Habiganj.
- Mymensingh Division: Some significant votes in Sherpur-1 and Mymensingh-6. Minimal presence in Jamalpur and Netrokona.
- Barishal Division: A strong base in Pirojpur-1, where the late Naib-e-Ameer Allama Delwar Hossain Sayedee won in 1996 and 2001. Sayedee’s son, Masud Sayedee, will contest this time. The party has minimal votes in other districts.
- Rajshahi Division: Some votes in Rajshahi-1 and Rajshahi-2. Also has competitive votes in Naogaon-2, Naogaon-4, Joypurhat-1, Chapainawabganj-1, Chapainawabganj-3, and three seats in Pabna, including Pabna-1 (former Ameer Motiur Rahman Nizami’s seat). Also holds a specific vote bank in Sirajganj-4.
- Khulna Division: Vote banks in two seats in Khulna, four in Satkhira, two in Jessore, two in Bagerhat, and one each in Jhenaidah, Meherpur, and Chuadanga. Satkhira is particularly strong, with the party having competitive votes in all four seats.
- Rangpur Division: Some votes in Rangpur-5. Holds a certain vote bank in three seats in Gaibandha and two seats in Nilphamari and Dinajpur. Minimal competitive position in Kurigram, Lalmonirhat, Thakurgaon, and Panchagarh.
Comments from Politicians and Analysts:
Mujahidul Islam Selim, former President of the Communist Party of Bangladesh (CPB), told Bangla Tribune, “Jamaat is a force that committed genocide. It is very sad that they are still doing politics in the country. I believe the people will not vote for them. Therefore, they will try to seize power through various conspiracies, which they may later try to publicize as their popularity.”
Saiful Haque, General Secretary of the Revolutionary Workers’ Party, told Bangla Tribune, “How well Jamaat will do in the next election will be seen in the vote. However, their vote share might increase. But the reality of them forming the government has not yet been created. The environment for people to see any form of extremism in state power has not been created. Especially their past vote statistics confirm this.”
Mojibur Rahman Monju, Chairman of Amar Bangladesh Party (AB Party), told Bangla Tribune, “Past experience suggests that the people always vote against the politics of power. For example, in the 1991 election, Awami League leaders assumed they would come to power due to their slightly better position. However, given the opportunity for a neutral vote, the people chose the BNP. Similarly, if the BNP considers itself close to power this time, and the people perceive this, a different atmosphere could be created. In that scenario, the public might choose Jamaat, ignoring past vote statistics.”
